Miami-Dade County, once a Democratic stronghold, has flipped red in early and mail-in voting, signaling a significant shift in Florida’s political landscape.
At a Glance
- Republicans lead Democrats in early and mail-in voting combined in Florida
- Miami-Dade County shows a Republican advantage in early in-person voting
- Republicans have over one million more registered voters than Democrats statewide
- Florida is no longer considered a battleground state due to Republican dominance
Republican Surge in Early Voting
The political tide in Florida is shifting dramatically, with Republicans taking the lead in early and mail-in voting across the state. In a surprising turn of events, Miami-Dade County, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, has flipped red in these crucial voting categories. Statewide, Republicans are outpacing Democrats, commanding 44.20% of early and mail-in votes compared to the Democrats’ 35.54%.
The Republican advantage is particularly pronounced in early in-person voting, where they hold a commanding 54.14% to the Democrats’ 26.99%. This shift is part of a broader trend that has seen Republicans gain over one million more registered voters than Democrats in Florida, a development that began in November 2021.
BREAKING: Miami-Dade County officially flips Republican in the early and mail-in voting for the 2024 election by party
— Florida’s Voice (@FLVoiceNews) October 24, 2024
Miami-Dade’s Political Transformation
Miami-Dade County’s pivot to Republican aligns with its voting patterns in the 2020 election, where it supported both Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio. In the current election cycle, Republicans have a 17.1% advantage in early in-person voting in the county. While Democrats maintain a 13.2% edge in mail-in votes, the overall trend points to a significant shift in this once-blue county.
“At the end of the day, it’s all about turnout. These early numbers make it clear that Florida Republicans are energized to vote.” – Republican Party Chair Evan Power
This enthusiasm is evident in the rapid overturn of initial Democratic leads. At the start of early voting, Democrats led in 66 of 67 counties with a 6% turnout advantage. However, Republicans quickly surpassed this lead by the end of the first day of early voting, demonstrating their strong motivation to cast their ballots.
Statewide Implications
The shift in Miami-Dade is reflective of broader changes across Florida. With Republicans now holding a significant voter registration advantage, Florida’s status as a swing state is being challenged. The state is no longer considered a battleground in the current election cycle, largely due to Republican dominance and the influence of former President Trump.
“We want to see several days before we start drawing conclusions about what the state of the turnout and state of the race is in Florida.” – University of Florida political science professor Michael McDonald
Despite this cautionary note, the early voting trends are clear. Over 2 million votes have already been cast in Florida, compared to the total of 11 million in the 2020 presidential race. This high early turnout, combined with the Republican lead, suggests a potentially decisive election outcome.
Looking Ahead
As the election approaches, both parties are intensifying their efforts. Democrats are focusing on engaging Black, Hispanic, and young voters in South Florida, groups that typically vote in smaller numbers. Republicans, buoyed by their current lead, are pushing to maintain their momentum.
“We feel really energized by what work has been put on the ground to get us to this moment.” – Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried
With competitive races for the U.S. Senate and ballot measures on recreational marijuana and abortion rights, Florida’s political landscape remains dynamic. The shift in Miami-Dade and the statewide Republican advantage in early voting suggest a continuing realignment of Florida’s political allegiances, potentially cementing its status as a red state for the foreseeable future.
Sources:
- Blue Miami-Dade Flips Red In Early, Mail-in Voting Combined
- As early voting gets underway, Republicans across Florida quickly surpass Democratic turnout
- Blue Miami-Dade Flips Red In Early and Mail-in Voting Combined
