Conservative States CRUSH Liberal Housing Markets

A suburban house with a For Sale sign in the front yard

Western and Southern metro areas are positioned to experience explosive housing market gains as falling mortgage rates unlock massive pent-up buyer demand in regions that have rebuilt inventory and attracted substantial job growth.

Story Highlights

Denver leads inventory recovery with 100% increase above pre-pandemic levels, followed by Austin at 69%
75% of metro markets posted home price gains in Q2 2025, with national median reaching record $429,400
South and West regions dominate recovery while Midwest and Northeast lag significantly
Job growth states like Texas, Florida, Idaho, Utah, and Carolinas positioned for strongest demand surge

Regional Market Leaders Drive Housing Recovery

Denver, Austin, and Seattle top the list of metros experiencing dramatic inventory rebounds, with Denver achieving a remarkable 100% increase in housing supply above pre-pandemic levels. Austin follows at 69%, while Seattle posts 60.9% gains. These Western and Southern metros demonstrate the stark regional divide emerging in America’s housing market, where pro-business policies and population growth fuel real estate momentum.

The South and West regions collectively show the strongest inventory and price performance, benefiting from conservative governance that encourages development and job creation. Dallas-Fort Worth maintains 55.5% inventory growth, San Antonio reaches 58.3%, and Nashville achieves 44.4% increases. This regional concentration reflects the ongoing migration from high-tax, regulated states to business-friendly environments.

Record Price Gains Signal Market Strength

National home prices reached a record median of $429,400 in Q2 2025, with 75% of metro markets posting gains. This price appreciation demonstrates the underlying strength in markets that avoided the regulatory overreach and economic policies that constrained growth elsewhere. The data reveals how local governance and business climate directly impact housing market performance and wealth creation opportunities.

National Association of REALTORS Chief Economist Lawrence Yun identifies states with significant job growth as prime beneficiaries of falling rates. Idaho, Utah, the Carolinas, Florida, and Texas emerge as markets where pent-up demand will surge strongest. These states consistently rank among America’s most business-friendly environments, attracting both employers and homebuyers seeking opportunity and affordability.

Federal Policy Creates Market Opportunities

The Federal Reserve’s previous rate hikes from 2022-2023 created artificial constraints that suppressed natural market demand, demonstrating how government monetary policy distorts economic activity. As rates begin declining, markets with strong fundamentals—robust job growth, reasonable regulations, and adequate supply—position themselves to capitalize on unleashed buyer demand that was artificially suppressed by federal intervention.

Several metro areas in the United States poised to cash in big as mortgage rates drop https://t.co/bCu0GHm6mv

— FOX Business (@FoxBusiness) September 25, 2025

Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale notes that affordability concerns previously slowed buyer demand, giving markets breathing room. This normalization process benefits regions that maintained sensible development policies and avoided the restrictive zoning and environmental regulations that continue hampering supply in coastal liberal strongholds. The divergence highlights how local policy choices create lasting economic advantages.