Vice President Kamala Harris’s favorability ratings have taken a hit in recent polls, while former President Donald Trump gains ground among independent voters.
At a Glance
- Harris’s favorability has dropped since her nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate
- Trump has seen an uptick in favorable ratings, especially among independents
- Harris still leads Trump in overall polls, but by a narrowing margin
- The shift in favorability poses questions about the viability of Harris’s campaign
Harris’s Declining Favorability
Recent polls have revealed a concerning trend for Vice President Kamala Harris as she steps into the role of Democratic presidential nominee. Despite an initial boost in favorability following her nomination, Harris has struggled to maintain momentum, with her ratings taking a noticeable dip.
The decline in Harris’s favorability is attributed to her relatively few public appearances and perceived weaknesses during spontaneous interactions. This has led to questions about her ability to connect with voters and maintain the enthusiasm needed for a successful presidential campaign.
Trump’s Resurgence Among Independents
In contrast to Harris’s decline, former President Donald Trump has experienced a resurgence in favorability, particularly among independent voters. This shift is significant, as independents often play a crucial role in determining election outcomes.
“This race has snapped back to where it always was, which is a very, very close contest, amongst a very bitterly divided electorate, and that this election is going to be very, very close and it’s going to come down to a few hundred thousand voters in a handful of states,” said Kevin Madden, a political strategist.
Recent polls show Trump now leading Harris by nine points among independent voters, a demographic that could prove decisive in the upcoming election. This shift has raised concerns within the Democratic Party about Harris’s ability to appeal to swing voters.
Harris’s Strengths and Challenges
Despite the overall decline in favorability, Harris still maintains strong support among key Democratic constituencies. She leads Trump by significant margins among Black voters (74% to 24%), women (by 14 points), and Hispanic voters (by 24 points). However, her campaign faces challenges in maintaining enthusiasm among these core groups.
Americans’ views of Vice President Kamala Harris have improved markedly in a Gallup poll conducted mostly before the Democratic National Convention began.
Harris' favorable rating has increased 13 percentage points since June, to 47%, with 93% of Democrats, 41% of independents… pic.twitter.com/jMcvxp40PU
— Gallup (@Gallup) August 22, 2024
Harris’s favorable rating did see a recent increase of 13 percentage points to 47%, according to a Gallup poll. However, this boost may be temporary, as some analysts suggest it could be a “short term” bump following her entrance into the race.
The Road Ahead
As the election approaches, both campaigns will be focusing their efforts on key battleground states. Harris currently leads Trump by two points in seven battleground states, but this margin is narrow and could easily shift.
“Those are two important groups that are likely to be the ones who the campaigns are going to be targeting very heavily throughout the campaign,” noted Amy Walter, referring to independent and swing-state voters.
The upcoming debates could play a crucial role in shaping voter perceptions. While a majority of voters who heard about the first debate believed Harris won, the impact on undecided voters, especially in battleground states, remains to be seen.
As the race tightens, both campaigns will need to focus on energizing their base while also appealing to the crucial independent voters who may ultimately decide the outcome of this closely watched election.
Sources:
- Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Increases Lead Slightly After Debate
- Democrats Give Harris Nearly Unanimous Positive Ratings
- Poll: Harris narrowly leads Trump, but he’s ahead with these key groups
